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As Cyclone Biparjoy intensifies, the monsoon is expected to reach Kerala within 48 hours. Thunderstorms and lightning are also likely in the coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh. IMD scientists believe all conditions are favourable for the onset of the monsoon in Kerala by Friday, June 9.
While the southern peninsula will receive rainfall due to the cyclonic storm and a developing low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal, the monsoon’s progress beyond this region will occur after the cyclone weakens. Although the criteria for monsoon onset may be met in the next two days, it is anticipated to have a relatively slow start.
The IMD forecast highlights the persistence of westerly winds over the south Arabian Sea, an increase in the depth of westerly winds, and an increase in cloudiness over the southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, and the Kerala coasts. These conditions suggest that the onset of the monsoon in Kerala is becoming favourable within the next 48 hours.
However, Skymet Weather cautions that the powerful weather system in the Arabian Sea may hinder the monsoon’s advancement deep inland. While coastal areas may experience the monsoon’s arrival, it may struggle to penetrate beyond the Western Ghats mountain range.
Additionally, the IMD has forecasted heatwave conditions in Andhra Pradesh, with temperatures reaching 40 degrees Celsius in Hyderabad. Thunderstorms and lightning are expected in the coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh and the Rayalaseema region. The formation and intensification of a low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea are expected to influence the monsoon’s advance towards the Kerala coast critically.